The Great Recession has probably thrown your investments in reverse, and you're hoping to soon "get back to break even". Not only may this be wishful thinking, it is probably bad strategy - because this is the exact strategy that got you to the bottom in the first place. What's more, your investments - and the market - may not cooperate by coming back. If your portfolio was General Motors, Ford, AIG, Citicorp, Lehman Brothers, WaMu, Frontier Airlines, Mervyn's, Circuit City and other victims of the Great Recession, there is no "coming back". Least you think the stock market's recovery is certain, consider Japan's Nikkei index. It was at 40,000 in 1990 and is now at 10,500. This can also happen in the USA: the NASDAQ index was 6,000 in 2002 and today is at 2,100. Granted, the market may recover longer-term, but in the meantime there are several complications.
First, it takes a bigger percentage gain than the percentage loss to get back to break even. This sounds confusing until you do the math. If you had $1000 in the market and it dropped to $500, you'd have a 50% loss. If the market reversed and gained 50%, your balance would be $750 ($500 + [50% x $500] = $750). It takes a 100% gain to recover a 50% loss. The stock market, as measured by the DJIA index, peaked at 14,165 in October 2007 and then nosedived over 50% to 6,547 in March 2009. While the market index is now 48% above the March low, 116% growth is needed to reach the previous peak (break even); therefore, further gains of 68% are needed for full recovery. While individual stocks can move dramatically in a short period of time, the market indexes move in lockstep with the overall economy. Currently the economy's health is anemic, and it appears many years will be needed to heal from the Great Recession. Even if there is a rapid snap back of the market, problems remain.
The Great Recession fostered a dramatic rise in the federal deficit. Massive amounts of money were injected to thaw credit markets, bailout critical industries and institutions, ease the economic pain of the unemployed millions, save the quasi-government housing agencies from failure, fund stimulus payments and more. This deficit explosion is the seed of future inflation. Unless taxes are raised dramatically or expenditures are cut drastically, more money chasing fewer goods will prime the inflation pump. The double digit rise in prices of the late 70's and early 80's comes to mind. If sharply higher inflation materializes, rapid market growth will be needed to maintain the purchasing power of your portfolio. Let's be optimists and assume 10% market growth and only 5% inflation. Under these conditions, the 68% real growth needed for break even will take about 14 years. Ironically, a typical retiree, age 70, is expected to live 14 years. Since Uncle Sam does not consider inflation when designing tax tables, you'll pay taxes on nominal gains even though you had a real loss in purchasing power.
There are great ways to manage risk; defer-lessen-eliminate taxes; lock in guaranteed fixed rates as high as 8% for a later guaranteed lifetime income; integrate money from retirement-savings-investment accounts with Social Security benefits to maximize income and minimize taxes. So don't wait for the market break even before you change your strategy. Meet with your financial advisor and chart a new course. Remember the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Shelby J. Smith, Ph.D.
October 2009
For more information check out the new Retirement Pros website http://www.theretirementpros.com/ and visit our blog at http://www.theretirementpros.com/blog to ask questions.
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